Atul Cowshish

The knowledgeable Pakistanis hesitate to call their country democratic.  Democracy and Pakistan do not seem to be made for each other. Almost from the time soon after the country came into being with the partition of British India in August 1947, the reins have been in the hands of the military, not people’s representatives, who go through the motions of periodic elections.

Currently, the Islamic nation of 220 million is witnessing a political upheaval, which in some ways can be traced to the usual military ‘interference’. In April this year, Imran Khan was ousted from power after he became the first prime minister of the country to have lost a vote of confidence in Parliament.  He was known to have been ‘selected’ by the military, but since his ouster, or a little before that, Khan started to attack the military, either openly or through innuendos—mocking the ‘neutral’ role that the army said it was playing in the country’s politics.

A government of uneasy coalition partners replaced Khan but it began to look shaky soon after it assumed office. It is partly because of the huge economic problems it inherited from Khan and the adverse economic winds blowing across the globe on account of Ukraine war, but also because of its poor show in governance. There is paralysis in decision making. The new rulers are groping in the dark about ways to pull the country out of the economic morass which encompasses not just high inflation and free fall of the rupee against the dollar but also a serious balance of payment crisis which has forced Pakistan to beg for bailout packages from IMF and its rich friends, Saudi Arabia and China.

The IMF bailout package, being negotiated for several months, has heightened the problem faced by the current government of Shehbaz Sharif. It finds itself it deeper waters as it begins to implement the stringent measures that IMF has proposed as condition for its aid.  A go-by to fuel subsidies, upward revision of power tariffs and a host of such measures to cut down have made the regime unpopular. A population brought up on freebies that is already groaning under inflation voted against the Shehbaz alliance in key assembly by-elections on the home turf of Sharifs.

The run up to the ballot saw a successful campaign by Imran Khan, against what he calls the ‘imported government’, one that he says was sponsored by the US. The public seem to have lapped up his rhetoric against the US ‘conspiracy’ to demolish his government, simply because it was following an ‘independent’ foreign policy. Khan’s concept of ‘independent’ foreign policy means unbridled opposition to US polices and a tighter embrace of China—and, lately, Russia too. On the day, Russia invaded Ukraine Imran Khan was in Moscow.  

For the first time in several decades, the army in Pakistan is in a quandary, not being able to decide how to deal with Imran Khan for his overt and covert campaign against it while facing a difficult choice in backing up the Sharif government. Because, it is the men in Khaki steer democracy in Pakistan by extending subtle support to one party or a coalition.

Shahbaz Sharif does not command automatic support of the army because his government has become unpopular in a short span of time. When he took over in April, the fact that his elder brother and three-time prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, was no darling of the army, had not mattered; the younger Sharif was more amenable to Army’s behind the scene manipulation. Four months is too long a period in politics. Imran is turning the tables.  And it is posing the real dilemma before the Army.   If it backs Shehbaz Sharif and he loses the elections to Imran Khan, as he well might, that will dent in its image.

The senior Sharif, Nawaz, is no less of an enigma. Facing corruption charges, he is living in exile in London. During Imran regime, he was able to leave the country by claiming that he required urgent medical attention of a kind that is not available in Pakistan. He is expected to return home since Shehbaz took over the reins. But he did nothing of the sort. Instead, he decided to play the role of mentor and guide of the ruling alliance led by his very own PML(N) from his posh home in London.  Many in Pakistan were shocked when Shehbaz and his entire cabinet flew to London for a meeting with the senior Sharif, and thus invested him with the remote control.

Nawaz Sharif may have thought that returning to Pakistan when the situation in his country is so fluid will be unwise. The Shehbaz government can fall well ahead of its term that ends in the summer of 2023. And if the elder Sharif is found stranded inside Pakistan he would run the risk of being arrested and prosecuted for the corruption charges he has been running away from. He can be sure that he would not be allowed to flee from the country again.

Pakistan has a provision that places a ban on the exit of people wanted by the law. There are reports that the Shehbaz government may place Imran Khan on the ‘no exit’ list. While Imran Khan remains popular with the youth and the middle class, the Election Commission of the country has created a big problem for him by accepting the charge that he and his PTI party had received foreign funds. Pakistan law prohibits such donations.  

The poll body decree can lead to Imran’s arrest.  His arrest may lead to a popular outcry but if, as is likely, it comes after a nod from the Army, Imran Khan could be in deep waters. Pakistan politics in the coming days promises a lot of twists and turns but it is unlikely to remove the stranglehold of the Army over the civilian government.##

—* The writer is a Delhi based senior journalist