Malladi Rama Rao

The nuclear-armed Pakistan, the world’s fifth most populous state, is staring at political instability after staging an electoral farce. 

The in-coming Pakistan Democratic Movement, PDM.2.0 may not have a long shelf-life.

And thus prove the pre-poll prophecy of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari that the new Sharif government would not last six – months.

Our own prophecy that Asif Ali Zardari would become the President after the Feb 8 ballot is coming true, though.

Bilawal prophecy targeted Nawaz Sharif (74) as a part of his outburst against the ‘elders’, and the Khakis. 

Probably he had no scores to settle with the low-key Shehbaz Sharif, (72), who is acceptable to the Over Lords with their Games of Oversight.

His petulance only delayed Asif Ali’s presidential tryst.

Clearly, the Army has dumped Shehbaz’s elder brother, after taking him tantalisingly close to clinching a fourth term as Prime Minister.

Army Chief Syed Asim Munir has not forgiven Nawaz for his pre-poll outbursts against his biradari.  

Also, the way Nawaz had gone against former military ruler, Gen Pervez Musharaf in his third term as PM is still fresh in the GHQ memory.

Nawaz pampering was a pre-poll gimmick; nothing more, nothing less.

The old man fell for the trap, and became complacent in wooing the electorate.

Now he is forced to make a dignified departure from the frontline.   

The Army doesn’t want history to repeat, more so since the electorate has just delivered “a stunning rebuke of the country’s most powerful political actor” behind the scenes.

The Army sees no need for a coup any longer. It is not perturbed by politics of the ballot either.

Under its scheme of things, there is no role for mass leaders like Imran Khan, who used the Social Media and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to reach out to the masses, and Nawaz Sharif, who had exploited the media to create a mass image for himself.

The poll outcome shows that the Army will continue to remain the power centre with every stakeholder well below the threshold level of claiming simple majority to form the government.

No danger of new Nawazs and newer Imrans to challenge the Army, which is not looking for new ‘ladlas’.

It is comfortable with wheeler– dealers- Shehbaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari et al.  

So much so, General Asim Munir’s call that the nation needs “stable hands and a healing touch to move on from the politics of anarchy and polarisation”, is no more than a proforma exercise to please democracy champions on the Capital Hill and to offer some food for thought of critics of poll rigging.

Poll rigging and political engineering are not new to Pakistan.

The country has been under the Army yoke more or less since it was carved out as homeland for Muslims of British India in 1947. 

And its elections are never more than a farce.   

The country has had three constitutions, three military coups, and none of its 30 prime ministers had completed a full-five-year term.

Economy is the Achilles heel of Pakistan.

Living on borrowed money – IMF and friendly Muslim countries – is not new to it.

Shehbaz Sharif heading PDM.1.0 delivered the worst economic management of the country of 241 million people.

Result: a 25% increase in the debt burden for every citizen. It works out to a staggering Pakistan Rupees Rs. 2,71,624 in a year.

In absolute terms, every person’s debt burden rose by Rs.54,500 signalling the speed at which the country is sinking under the debt burden.

The first task before Shehbaz Sharif’s new innings is knock at the doors of IMF, Saudi Arabia and China to keep his land of pure afloat.     

PDM.2.0 is no different from PDM.1.0 (which ruled from April 2022 to August 2023) in its composition as a political alliance carved out to keep playboy turned garrulous politician Imran Khan at bay.

Well, the Pakistan People’s Party, PPP is not joining the Sharif government as a concession to politically immature Bilawal Bhutto right now but it will share the spoils of power when the cabinet is expanded a few weeks later.

MQM-P, PML-Q, IPP and BAP, have no such reservations. And will take their place under PDM.2.0. 

So, will Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, (JUI-F) despite ‘reservations over rigged polls’, and plans for mass protests.  Rehman was defeated on his home turf, KP but got elected from Balochistan.

Like him, the wealthiest politician of Pakistan, Jahangir Khan Tareen, who had floated the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party, IPP, with turncoats from Imran’s PTI, was rejected at the hustings.

Another such party PTI-Parliamentarians tasted defeat; its founder, and former KP chief minister Pervez Khattak faced defeat in Nowshera’s NA-33 seat.

Jamat-e-Islami, JI, also suffered heavy reverses.

It would like to float with Imran but he wants their hand in KP, not at the federal level.  This is not acceptable to the politico religious party with roots in KP, Balochistan and the Sindh.

Shehbaz Sharif will take over the reins of the country in the first week of March. The new law makers will be sworn-in towards end Feb.

As pointed out at the outset, the Shehbaz – led coalition will survive the floor test in the new Parliament.

The alliance has 152 seats and these numbers will swell to 169 after the allocation of reserved seats. 

There may be some more accretion to the ranks of PML-N with some Imran Khan -Independents crossing over to the treasury benches.

Post-poll scenario shows that KP will remain PTI turf while PML N will retain hold in Punjab. PPP with allies will hold sway over Balochistan and the Sindh.

Imran Khan’s brave face notwithstanding, how many of his 100 plus lawmakers, who have been elected as independents to Parliament, will remain loyal to him is a Sudoku.

Even if they remain together solidly behind the Captain, they will have to join a political party for the sake of parliamentary politics.

It is this necessity that has made them to close ranks with one – time ally, Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen, MWM, a party on the fringes, floated by the Shiites in the predominantly Sunni Muslim country.

Like Imran, the MWM leadership dreams of installing an Islamic regime in Pakistan.

Their coming together is less religious, more political, as the turn of events show.

Simply put, PTI will be forced to live out of the system if it does not seek reconciliation with the powers that be.

Pocketing pride, when chips are down, is an art, politicians have mastered, not sportsmen, who are trained to win, not lose.

The takeaway is clear. Any doubt?

(This commentary first appeared on the website of Deccan Council. a Hyderabad based think tank)