Geographically separated by narrow Afghan territory of the Wakhan Corridor, which was a creation of the Great Game between Czarist Russia and Imperial Britain in the 1870’s, relations between Pakistan and Tajikistan remained frozen in time till the first visit of the Tajik President Emomali Rehmon to Islamabad in early March this year. While there are reports of a large number of Tajik citizens in the Ishkoman Valley in Gilgit-Baltistan, a part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, interactions between Dushanbe and Islamabad have been largely lukewarm.

A number of factors have possibly contributed to this paradox. Tajikistan attained independence with break up of the Soviet Union in 1991 but was wracked with internal conflict. The present President Emomali Rehmon took office in 1994 when civil war in Afghanistan was gathering momentum. Pulled into anti Taliban resistance Tajikistan was a bulwark for the forces of the Northern Alliance, it was this time that India’s activities in the country gained prominence with establishment of a military hospital in Farkhor to treat the fighters including the legendary Ahmad Shah Masood.

India continued to sustain the relationship with reports of Ayni air base with MiG fighters and helicopters stationed there. Regular visits by Indian leaders including Prime Minister Vajpayee in 2003, Emomali Rehmon to New Delhi in 2006 and Indian President to Dushanbe in 2009 have retained the concord. The Ayni air base has remained shrouded in secrecy, however the reports itself were raising concerns in Pakistan.

While Russia had been studiously avoiding commitment in Afghanistan, in 2010 the policy seems to have undergone a change. For Moscow growing US military presence in Central Asia necessitated an appropriate response given perceived encroachment in traditional Russian area of influence. Russian approval of the Northern supply route for NATO and reengagement of Afghanistan along with Tajikistan and Pakistan at the Sochi Summit in August 2010 denoted new willingness to play a lead role in the region. The summit in Sochi was heralded as a, “Quadrilateral Initiative,” between Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan with multiple aims of economic, energy and security engagement. Moscow’s increasing concerns of spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the Caucasus and drugs were other vectors for expanding influence.

Improvement of Russia-Pakistan relations has been a corollary to the same and greater official proximity between Tajikistan and Pakistan completes the strategic geometry drawn. Obviously India does not find a place in these equations at least for the time being.

While these events have invited some attention in the recent past, it was the grand scale of reception accorded to the Tajik President Mr Emomali Rehmon in Islamabad in March that surprised many. President Asif Ali Zardari conferred Nishan-e-Pakistan on the Tajik President on his very first visit and was reciprocated with the award of first order of Tajikistan for the common achievement of boosting bilateral trade and cooperation. This equates Mr Rehmon with Chinese President Hu Jintao, US Presidents Eisenhower and Nixon, Queen Elizabeth II and Abdullah Gul as well as Erdogan of Turkey signifying the importance given to the visiting dignitary. Foundation of a new Tajik embassy in Islamabad being constructed at a cost of US $ 4 million laid jointly be the two Presidents was another high point.

The Tajik President was accompanied by Tajik Minister for Economic & Trade Affairs, Farrukh Hamraliev, and a 33 – member business delegation which had a dialogue with Pakistani counterparts under the aegis of Business Forum of entrepreneurs of Pakistan and Tajikistan in Karachi. The aim of the meeting was to boost trade presently at US $ 20 million. Pakistan is also seeking benefits from Tajikistan’s hydro potential of 527 billion KW per annum. Less than 6 percent of this capacity is being used at present. A grand Russian initiative under CASA-1000 project aims at providing 1000 megawatts of electricity to Pakistan through Afghanistan. Tajikistan is hoping for foreign investment including in mining of gold and silver deposits.

On the security front common challenges as terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime have been flagged for cooperation. This will also meet Afghan and Russian apprehensions given that both countries have raised the issue of terror emanating from Pakistan. Russia is also concerned about the flow of narcotics from Afghanistan through Tajikistan. Islamabad is also hoping for defence sales and provision of training facilities to Tajikistan though the Russians have a monopoly in this field.

Quite naturally a single visit is unlikely to lead to establishment of relations on a strong footing even though the two neighbours have many congruities such as religious affiliation of Sunni majority and membership of a number of multilateral organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Economic Cooperation Organization and Organization of the Islamic Conference. Pakistan is also holding out the promise to Tajikistan of access to Gwadar port though the hinterland is underdeveloped and there is limited scope for any development over the next few years.

While there has been much talk of
improving trade it is worth noting that India Tajikistan trade figures had touched over US $ 34 million in 2008 -09 even though the countries do not have land communication links. More over the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement (ATTA) will have to be converted to a trilateral or multilateral one for Pakistan to benefit from opening up of trade and transit to Dushanbe.  Pakistan’s economic capacity is also severely constrained with heavy dependence on aid thus on its own it may not be able to provide much assistance to Dushanbe.

Nevertheless India would have to sit up and take notice of these developments in the neighbourhood. While the Tajik President seemed to be conscious of Indian sensitivities and called for betterment of Indo Pakistan relations the country’s dependence on Moscow to forge its policy may constrain Mr Rehmon to maintain a balance without Russian approval. Will he be able to continue the same level of contacts as have existed till 2009 remains to be seen.  What happens to Indian security and development investments in Farkhor and Ayni, will these be now abandoned due to resetting of the great game are important questions which South Block will have to address if the current trajectory does not take into account India’s interests.

The large number of Tajiks reportedly in Ishkoman area of Gilgit Baltistan which is a part of the Jammu and Kashmir state is also a concern for it is changing the very character of this area with recent reports of increased Chinese presence as well.

Under the circumstances, New Delhi’s options are to attempt to play a larger role in the emerging calculus in the region for it is India which has the capacity to invest in Tajikistan and fructify the potential of economic development and trade in the region. The Tajiks are acutely aware of the same and are unlikely to dump New Delhi for Pakistan. These prospects would have to be expanded to sustain economic relations with Dushanbe with continued vigour. Security and military relations will follow a similar course underlining the fact that balance of power in a region need not be a zero sum game.

In the larger perspective the likely scenarios post US and NATO exit from Afghanistan in 2014 have to be visualized to ensure that India remains a key player in the region which is of vital interest to our security.  While efforts to improve relationship with Iran are evident with the recent visit of the National Security Adviser Mr Shiv Shanker Menon to Tehran, Russia would have to be sensitized to Indian concerns in the years ahead.

On the flip side, under a positive framework of cooperation, linkages between Central, South West and South Asia have great potential. These need to be actualized even though it may be a long process given the current state of mutual suspicion between not just India and Pakistan but other states in the region.  Thus South Block will have to evolve a nuanced policy keeping in view changed circumstances in the eternal great game with new fault lines and multiple stake holders.

—Brig. Rahul K. Bhonsle (Retd.)