Otunbaeva sees the referendum as essential to achieve stability in the country. Though it appears a distant dream, the vote will help to achieve other key objectives, notably adoption of the new constitution. There is general agreement that the new statute is the most democratic Kyrgyzstan has ever had. It limits the powers of the President, broad bases the authority of Parliament and Prime Minister and gives voice to the opposition by guaranteeing 55 seats in the 120-member parliament. This effectively means that the party propelled to the treasury benches cannot hope to bag more than 65 seats. Parliamentary elections are slated for October 2010, and Presidential election in end 2011.

Roza Otunbaeva took over the reins of the country after President Kurmanbek Bakiev was swept out in popular unrest on April 6- 7 but has been facing unrest in the Bakiev territory. She believes that postponement of the referendum will benefit Bakiev camp by giving breathing time and space to put their act together.

Obviously, prompted by this necessity, Otunbaeva has announced some unusual steps to make the referendum look good.  One she lifted the restrictions on holding referendum in places under emergency. Second she decreed that a 50 per cent turnout is not necessary to make the referendum valid.

Both these decisions are tailor-made to take the vote in Osh and Jalalabad regions which are under a state of emergency since clashes broke out between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks on June 10. The ethnic violence claimed more than 250 people lives and left 2200 injured over the next four days.

Referendum is a costly exercise. It also demands huge logistics. Both are at a premium as of now for Roza Otunbaeva. It is not clear how the regime is addressing the twin issues. Indications are that Russia has quietly stepped in with help since President Medvedev has gone on record saying “The interim government needs full power. Otherwise the Republic may, unfortunately, disintegrate”.

Violence has since subsided in Osh and Jalalabad but the situation remains fragile still, as observed by Zhanybek Karibzhanov, the Special Envoy sent by neighbouring Kazakstan in its capacity as the current chair of the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe). He visited Osh on June 15. A day later, on June 16, Kyrgyzstan’s national security service said the armed groups were continuing attempts to cause trouble but by then the general trend in Osh and surrounding areas was towards greater stability.

WHO IS BEHIND RIOTS

The Kyrgyz authorities have been persuading the refugees to return to their homes. Deputy Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev and his aides have talked with leaders of both Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities to facilitate a return. The effort is yet to bear fruit. The refugees, particularly those still inside Kyrgyzstan appear unconvinced. They face an uncertain future; on return, their first task will be to search for a roof. Many houses were looted and torched in the ethnic violence.

Who engineered the riots? While the needle of suspicion points to deposed President Kurmanbek Bakiev and his supporters, three other factors also have a contributory potential.

One well-armed communities, Kyrgyz and Uzbek, live in close proximity, angry and scared. More over, parts of Kyrgyz-Uzbek border has not been demarcated or delimited since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, leaving room for almost daily friction over grazing lands.

Second South Kyrgyzstan is a major stop on the drug road from Afghanistan to Russia and China. The drug cartels could have contributed, if not engineered the violence, expecting to benefit from political and administrative instability. They have much at stake as an estimated 20,000 kilograms of narcotics is trafficked through the Osh. Also the drug mafia has reason to fear crackdown with pro-Moscow regime in place in Bishkek. 

These money cartels, like business in developing countries, may try to enter politics to cash in on the sense of neglect amongst the people. That will herald a new ball game. Because, there is a general identity crisis in Kyrgyzstan with people still divided along clan lines.

Third Islamist militants use South Kyrgyzstan as ‘a comfortable stop’ on their long march from Afghanistan to Central Asia and Western Europe. For them too, a Roza Otunbaeva government with secular credentials is an anathema.   A power vacuum suits them. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IUM) is active in the Ferghana Valley, which Kyrgyz share with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan under a three-way division of the valley during the Soviet era.

BIG CONCERNS- BIGGER DILEMMA
 
Moscow, Washington and China view Central Asia as their sphere of influence for a variety of reasons. But the United States, with an inward looking administration, is not paying much attention to Kyrgyzstan; it has a major base just outside the capital Bishkek, which literally means a container for making fermented mare’s milk, the Kyrgyz national drink. 

The Manas base is the major transit point for American and NATO forces and supplies destined for Afghanistan. And the lease money, the Americans are paying is the oxygen that sustains the cash strapped Roza government. In a sense both are locked in a mutuality of interest. With Khyber Pass route regularly coming under Taliban sniper threat, US will need the base as the most cost effective transit route, even if it sticks to its timeline for leaving Afghanistan.

China has no multiplicity of interests in Central Asia. It is uni-directional in all that matters to it. It also doesn’t allow itself to be swayed by local power dynamics while securing its economic interests.

For the Russians, Central Asia is a backyard. And like Russia, the region is passing through a period of transition from a command economy to a free market.

While Moscow has stabilized itself and has, in fact, reinvented the wheel of its strategic superiority, across most of the region, the Central Asian Republics are still unable to cope up with the challenges thrown up by the break-up of Soviet Union. Some of their problems are rooted in their past, undoubtedly but to a large extent these problems have bee
n compounded by crony capitalism, corruption, and family rule of sorts.

Russia has an air base in North Kyrgyzstan at Kant. It is setting up a second base in the South at a cost of about $250 million. Apart from strengthening its influence, the base whether located at Osh or Jalalabad (the two places are short listed), will help Moscow overcome logistic dilemma in troop movement at short notice, even if it acts through Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), or as in the present instance, under the aegis of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

On the very face of it, this is a development that will not be to the liking of President Islam Karimov, who has made Uzbekistan a strong no non-sense state in the region. Also, he has much at stake in Kyrgyzstan for obvious reasons. So, it will be interesting to watch the emerging Moscow- Bishkek – Tashkent equation. 

There will be no scope for friction, if the new base is projected and sustained not as a Moscow’s entry into sub-regional politics for dominance but as a new coalition against emerging threat from Islamists from Ferghana Valley, Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Waziristan.

NO SINGLE SUPER COP

America’s experience in Iraq and its tryst in Afghanistan show that the world is past the days of single super cop. In fact, that is the message Soviet Union has left behind. Co-option of regional and sub-regional players is the only recipe for geo-political stability and it is the only way to checkmate the surge in Islamist militancy.

The Kyrgyz trouble spots, Osh and Jalalabad are located in the Ferghana valley stretch of the country. Uzbek part of the Valley is home to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Hizb-ut-Tahrir, who have bases in Afghanistan and the adjoining border belt of Pakistan. Radical Jihadi campaigners of the Taliban and al-Qaida are aligned with IMU and HuT.

All this makes an end in Kyrgyzstan to ethnic violence imperative. Simultaneously, it calls for massive efforts at national reconciliation at home and peace in the region. Otherwise, the Islamist militancy will get a fresh lease to go on the rampage from its staging posts in the Ferghana Valley and Southern Afghanistan. There are already reports of collusion between the deposed President Bakiyev and the IMU. While Bakiyev’s son, Maxim met IMU representatives in Dubai, his brother Janysh is said to have established contacts with the Afghan Taliban with the help of a drug baron.

INDIA’S INTEREST- INDIA’S PRESENCE

India has a vested interest in peace and stability in Afghanistan and beyond it in Central Asian Republics. Historically, India is close to the Farghana Valley in particular. The founder of Mughal empire in India, Zāhir ud-Dīn Mohammad Bābur (1483-1530) was the king of Farghana and from there he had set out on his conquest of Samarkhand, Kabul and Delhi.  Pakistan occupied Kashmir is separated from Tajikistan by a narrow strip of Afghan territory.

Already India is contributing to reshaping the Afghan economy. In Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, it is accepted as a valued friend in the fight against terrorism, and in tapping natural resources. Kyrgyzstan, particularly the southern provinces attract Indians in big number for studies and business alike.

In a manner of speaking, India has a ‘military’ presence in Tajikistan. About eight-nine years ago, it had set up a 25-bed field hospital at the Farkhor Air Base, 60 km from the Afghan border. It helped to treat the wounded members of the Northern Alliance when they were fighting the Taliban rulers.

More significant is the India-Tajik cooperation at Ayni Air Base, 15 km from the capital Dushanbe. India refurbished the base and constructed three hangers that can house about 12 MiG -29 bombers under a bilateral agreement signed in 2002.

Significantly, Ayni has come to India’s rescue as it became active in the Afghan reconstruction effort. As Pakistan does not allow India overland access to Afghanistan, the Indian supplies and economic assistance are first airlifted to Ayni and then to Farkhor. From there the supplies are sent by road to their Afghan destinations.

Put differently, India is a player in the New Great Game in Central Asia diplomatically, strategically and economically. Reason enough to qualify for co-option in the ‘enterprise peace and stability’ in the area which has immense significance for India’s own security