Pakistan Staring At More Political Uncertainty

On January 14, Pakistan Punjab Governor Balighur Rehman dissolved the provincial assembly.^[1] The dissolution was carried out under Article 112(1) of Pakistan’s Constitution and it came after Acting Chief Minister Parvez Elahi recommended the dissolution after his victory in a ‘no-confidence’ motion in the assembly.^[2] This development has prompted widespread speculation as to what the future holds. Most analysts are predicting the intensification of the ongoing political turmoil and greater chances of early election to the Parliament (National Assembly) and to the provincial assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).^[3]

Despite scepticism across the political spectrum, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, PTI, along with its allies, proceeded with the dissolution of Punjab and KPK assemblies. There were rumours of dissent within the party and some PTI lawmakers even went public with their concerns but the party supremo, Imran Khan did not budge.

Initially, the erstwhile ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was opposed to the Imran games but has since been gearing up for an election, rather than attempting to delay it. Simply put, politics in Pakistan now has become a game of one-upmanship with principles and concerns over people’s plight thrown out of the window.

Reports in public domain say, the military establishment is not in favour of early elections but did not act decisively to checkmate Imran Khan, and steal his thunder. In fact, the GHQ appears to have become simply neutral. On his part, carried away by blind fury over Army’s reluctance to come to his rescue, Imran Khan is indulging in political brinkmanship with his call for snap polls.

In an interview with BBC Urdu on January 18, the PTI chief claimed that his party currently has “no relationship with the new military leadership”. This inter alia means he has no contact with General Syed Asim Munir, who has succeeded Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa Bajwa, who once mentored Imran.^[4] Furthermore, Khan has charged Bajwa with “helping the [PDM] government in ruling the country” and predicted that the government would be “forced to hold general elections this April”.^[5]

After dissolving Punjab and KPK assemblies, Imran Khan has tweaked his plans. “No resignations now. We will go back to Parliament and defeat the Shehbaz clique in a trust vote,” he says now in what is no more than a U-turn.

Till yesterday he was taunting the Speaker for not accepting the resignations submitted by PTI law makers.

Today he is challenging the Speaker for accepting some resignations. And is moving wants courts and Election Commission to intervene and nullify the Speaker’s action so that the PTI contingent can vote out Shehbaz government on the floor of Parliament.^[6]

The Imran move has another motive as well.

One prevent the PTI dissident group from voting in favour of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the event of a vote of confidence.

Two enlist the support of Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) which is threatening to walk out of the ruling PDM coalition government over its failure to stall the recent chaotic local government elections in Sindh.^[7] ^[8]

Imran Khan is also banking on President of Pakistan, Arif-ur-Rehman Alvi, a dentist turned PTI activist, to force the trust vote. If it is determined that PM Sharif has lost the trust of the ‘majority’, the President can ask him to face a trial on the floor of parliament.

Put simply, Imran Khan has craftily played his cards and dented the Shehbaz Sharif government’s chances of surviving for long. Multiple factors have pump-primed Imran Khan’s brash moves.

First, Khan’s is running out of viable options to pressure the government. His popularity remains intact and will favour PTI if elections take place in the next three months.

Second, there are visible cracks within the PDM alliance.

Third, COAS General Munir is still settling down and may not support Khan in the future elections because of the latter’s blatant anti-establishment rhetoric.^[9]

Fourth, the PDM government has failed miserably to provide the much-needed economic stability, and is virtually facing an existential crisis.

More importantly, Imran Khan has managed to keep his party cadre and political allies intact despite several attempts to weaken PTI.

PTI’s ally, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) was divided on the dissolution of Punjab assembly. The Q-leader, Parvez Elahi, himself was in a mood to buy time but yielded in the end as the price for his loyalty to Imran Khan.^[10] He has however denied that any ‘trade-off’ had taken place with PTI, emphasising that the decision was taken out of trust in Khan’s “ability to lead the country”.^[11]

Interestingly, PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat suspended Elahi from the primary membership of the party over his statement regarding the party’s merger with PTI.^[12] Shujaat is reportedly in touch with the PDM alliance to discuss the political situation in Punjab.^[13]

In contrast, Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N faces the challenge of regaining its power in Punjab after the assembly’s dissolution. With an uncertain future, the party’s strategy is uncertain as well. Currently, Maryam Nawaz Sharif has announced her return to Pakistan, with rumours of Nawaz Sharif’s return as well to handle the situation.^[14]

However, their return may not help the PML-N as it could exacerbate tensions between the Sharif brothers and their children – Maryam and Hamza. PML-N best bet is an alliance with the Pakistan People’s Party, PPP, which has closed ranks to float the PDM coalition. But the Sharifs have just ruled out any tie-up plans with the PPP in Punjab, their home bastion.

As things stand PML -N is at a disadvantage. So is the PDM coalition it is leading. This reality check is a pointer to the direction of the political wind in the days ahead.

*The writer is a regular contributor to Poreg

^[1]https://twitter.com/MBalighurRehman/status/1614312062561275904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1614312062561275904%7Ctwgr%5E311551c7f80cd94a45515e1a3a1b2d9ba3ddccd2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dawn.com%2Fnews%2F1731612

^[2] https://www.thefridaytimes.com/2023/01/11/cm-elahi-arrives-at-punjab-assembly-to-seek-vote-of-confidence/

^[3] https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/imran-khans-party-dissolves-assembly-in-pakistans-khyber-pakhtunkhwa/

^[4] https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1031914-ik

^[5] https://tribune.com.pk/story/2396584/no-relationship-with-new-military-leadership-yet-imran

^[6] https://pakobserver.net/imran-hints-at-returning-to-na/

^[7] https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/13-Jan-2023/mqm-p-mulls-ending-coalition-with-pdm-over-delimitation-issue-in-sindh

^[8] https://www.dawn.com/news/1731776

^[9] https://www.geo.tv/latest/465426-pti-parliamentarians-can-return-to-national-assembly-says-imran-khan

^[10] https://www.dawn.com/news/1731612/punjab-assembly-stands-dissolved-as-governor-decides-to-not-become-part-of-process

^[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXkW56N88EY