Nepal At Cross Roads
WHO HOLDS THE KEY TO NEPAL’S FUTURE
Nepal has two armies today. Both are the centre of a brewing crisis. Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and Nepal Army (NA) report to the same master- – Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known as Prachanda.
Of the two armies, Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is Prachanda’s own force which was involved in a bloody battle till the Maoists joined the mainstream. It lacks legitimacy unlike the Nepal Army (NA), which is the instrument of the State.
The Nepal Army had fought against the PLA for eight years and the Maoists for almost fourteen years. The war took lives of some 14000 innocent Nepalis.
Unlike the PLA, NA is apolitical at least in theory and to a large extent in practice too. The Army chief, R Kotwal was once known to be close to the Palace but that ‘stigma’ did not prevent Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala from appointing him to the coveted post in 2007.
Under Kotwal, the army has been resisting Maoist led government pressure to induct enbloc erstwhile Maoist combatants presently held in seven cantonments. ‘Only those meeting the minimum qualifying mark will be inducted’, the General says, and if he doesn’t relent, as he appears to, some 4000 former fighters will be left out of the integration of PLA with the Army. This is not to the liking of both Prime Minister Prachanda and defence minister, Ram Bahadur Thapa, a known Maoist hard-liner.
Thapa, who is known as ‘Badal’ from his guerrilla days, and an influential member of the Central Committee of Communist Party of Nepal –Maoists, is also irked at the General’s plans to fill up more than 2700 junior posts. Badal has warned him of serious consequences if he goes ahead with open recruitment for these posts.
Gen Kotwal’s response is not in public domain but he appears to be not yielding saying the posts to be filled up are outside the purview of ‘integration’ and that these vacancies came up in the normal course. Badal rejected the stand and decreed that his directive to stop the recruitment was final and not open to any interpretation or defiance.
Like in neighbouring Bangladesh, in Nepal also, the army is a powerful institution which doggedly guards its turf. Again like in Bangladesh army, in Nepal army also, the chief doesn’t act alone. Every step of the chief enjoys the backing of the entire command structure. Kotwal, like the commanders, wants to preserve the ‘purity’ and ‘combat quality’ of the armed forces, and keep it apolitical.
More over, as sources in the army headquarters are quoted saying in a local daily, army men at various levels are squirming at the ‘prospect’ of integration. ‘How can we work together with whom we had fought and who had laid ambushes and indulged in brutal killings, they ask’, the report said. If this indeed is the case then Kotwal is only articulating a concern that cuts across the rank and file of the Army.
DEEPENING STAND OFF
Another Maoist plan also has not gone down well with the Army brass. Maoists want lateral entry for their senior commanders and make one of them even the chief of the Army. According to a local media report, China has agreed to provide training to senior PLA commanders and make them meet Army’s qualification bar.
The stand off between the army and the Maoist government is likely to deepen as moves are afoot to sack Kotwal. Defence Minister has already moved the proposal and it awaits Prime Minister Prachanda’ approval to give Nepal its first ever ideologically indoctrinated army.
A People’s Army of Nepal is the dream of every Maoist as the first step towards ultimate capture of total state power. Though Maoists are in the driver’s seat, they are not in total control of the government and the system at present. The government is an interim-coalition and its charter is a new constitution and fresh elections.
Besides the Army, the Maoists are targeting judiciary for total control. Law Minister Dev Gurung has proposed that comrades who headed the Kangaroo Courts in the ‘Red Territory’ should be integrated into the judicial system.
These moves have made the Nepal Congress and GP Koirala see red. And they have begun talking about formation of an alternative government. They are working to bring as many non-Maoist parties as possible in a ‘broader democratic’ alliance. Success has eluded them thus far as Nepal Congress is itself a divided house like other mainstream political parties of Nepal.
Two other developments that are taking place parallel to the Maoist moves are attracting attention since they have a bearing on the Maoist rule.
First is the emergence of new armed groups styling themselves as New Maoists. The second is threats to freedom of the press.
NEW MAOISTS ON PROWL
Nepal has two armies today. Both are the centre of a brewing crisis. Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and Nepal Army (NA) report to the same master- – Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known as Prachanda.
Of the two armies, Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is Prachanda’s own force which was involved in a bloody battle till the Maoists joined the mainstream. It lacks legitimacy unlike the Nepal Army (NA), which is the instrument of the State.
The Nepal Army had fought against the PLA for eight years and the Maoists for almost fourteen years. The war took lives of some 14000 innocent Nepalis.
Unlike the PLA, NA is apolitical at least in theory and to a large extent in practice too. The Army chief, R Kotwal was once known to be close to the Palace but that ‘stigma’ did not prevent Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala from appointing him to the coveted post in 2007.
Under Kotwal, the army has been resisting Maoist led government pressure to induct enbloc erstwhile Maoist combatants presently held in seven cantonments. ‘Only those meeting the minimum qualifying mark will be inducted’, the General says, and if he doesn’t relent, as he appears to, some 4000 former fighters will be left out of the integration of PLA with the Army. This is not to the liking of both Prime Minister Prachanda and defence minister, Ram Bahadur Thapa, a known Maoist hard-liner.
Thapa, who is known as ‘Badal’ from his guerrilla days, and an influential member of the Central Committee of Communist Party of Nepal –Maoists, is also irked at the General’s plans to fill up more than 2700 junior posts. Badal has warned him of serious consequences if he goes ahead with open recruitment for these posts.
Gen Kotwal’s response is not in public domain but he appears to be not yielding saying the posts to be filled up are outside the purview of ‘integration’ and that these vacancies came up in the normal course. Badal rejected the stand and decreed that his directive to stop the recruitment was final and not open to any interpretation or defiance.
Like in neighbouring Bangladesh, in Nepal also, the army is a powerful institution which doggedly guards its turf. Again like in Bangladesh army, in Nepal army also, the chief doesn’t act alone. Every step of the chief enjoys the backing of the entire command structure. Kotwal, like the commanders, wants to preserve the ‘purity’ and ‘combat quality’ of the armed forces, and keep it apolitical.
More over, as sources in the army headquarters are quoted saying in a local daily, army men at various levels are squirming at the ‘prospect’ of integration. ‘How can we work together with whom we had fought and who had laid ambushes and indulged in brutal killings, they ask’, the report said. If this indeed is the case then Kotwal is only articulating a concern that cuts across the rank and file of the Army.
DEEPENING STAND OFF
Another Maoist plan also has not gone down well with the Army brass. Maoists want lateral entry for their senior commanders and make one of them even the chief of the Army. According to a local media report, China has agreed to provide training to senior PLA commanders and make them meet Army’s qualification bar.
The stand off between the army and the Maoist government is likely to deepen as moves are afoot to sack Kotwal. Defence Minister has already moved the proposal and it awaits Prime Minister Prachanda’ approval to give Nepal its first ever ideologically indoctrinated army.
A People’s Army of Nepal is the dream of every Maoist as the first step towards ultimate capture of total state power. Though Maoists are in the driver’s seat, they are not in total control of the government and the system at present. The government is an interim-coalition and its charter is a new constitution and fresh elections.
Besides the Army, the Maoists are targeting judiciary for total control. Law Minister Dev Gurung has proposed that comrades who headed the Kangaroo Courts in the ‘Red Territory’ should be integrated into the judicial system.
These moves have made the Nepal Congress and GP Koirala see red. And they have begun talking about formation of an alternative government. They are working to bring as many non-Maoist parties as possible in a ‘broader democratic’ alliance. Success has eluded them thus far as Nepal Congress is itself a divided house like other mainstream political parties of Nepal.
Two other developments that are taking place parallel to the Maoist moves are attracting attention since they have a bearing on the Maoist rule.
First is the emergence of new armed groups styling themselves as New Maoists. The second is threats to freedom of the press.
NEW MAOISTS ON PROWL
The composition of the New Maoists remains unclear. They could be renegade Maoists or those who feel left outside the spoils system. Still some of them, like the Maoists at one time, could be rebelling against the system. One of these groups has been identified as Mongol Revenge Group.
Like the Maoists in the past, they also are targeting police stations. In one such attack on Syaulibang police post (42 kms from Khalanga, the headquarters of Pyuthan district) on February 6, 2009, Mongol Revenge Group looted weapons and killed the officer in charge of the post. According to Avenue TV, however, the attack could be the handiwork of another group, Pachahattar Youth Liberation Front.
Even the UN office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) is not spared from bomb attacks. A little known ‘Bhisan Himali Bagh’ carried out an attack on OHCHR office at Nepalgunj on Feb 14, 2009. .
To an extent, the prevailing ‘disorder’ in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the countryside is attributed to Young Communist League, YCL – the Maoist Youth Wing. It has been a law unto itself, prompting some commentators in The Kathmandu Post to describe YCL as the epicentre of lawlessness that has engulfed Nepal. Refusal to heed their demands and threats is resulting in brutal killings.
YCL’s unchecked vigilantism has spawned a cycle of vengeance between armed political groups and murder of people who refuse to give in to threats. Maoist aligned or affiliated trade unions are creating their own havoc with their extortions and charter of demands that have no relevance to the health of the industry.
The Nepal police are hopelessly demoralized. Their authority is undermined by vigilante groups. A sad commentary on the police was the attack on the personal assistant of Prime Minister Prachanda. Gunmen shot at and injured him very near his house in the heart of Kathmandu in February (2009).
UNREST IN TERAI
Unrest shows no signs of abating in Terai region, which is the agriculture heartland of Nepal. It accounts for 48 per cent of country’s population and 80 per cent of its commercial and industrial activity. Madheshis, as the Terai people are called, want a say in the governance of the country. Political parties and student groups have come up with their own charters. Not a day passes without a shut down in some part of the sprawling plains, which is next door to India.
Once Terai stood solidly behind the Maoists, and it was, indeed, their main support base. Today, it has slipped out of Maoist-fold. Madheshis who broke away from the Maoists and the PLA have floated their own parties. Their demands range from political reservations to self-determination and sovereign homeland.
Broken promises and inconsistencies between words and deeds are the two charges that are regularly made against Prime Minister Prachanda. One charge he is unable to shake off relates to return of properties seized by the guerillas before they were brought into the mainstream under a 2006 agreement between Prachanda and GP Koirala. Today Prachanda says ‘We will return that property legally’. But there is no further movement even on this offer.
In a report to the Security Council in January (2009), Ban Ki-moon, UN’s Secretary-General, lamented the lack of progress in returning Maoist seized property and in curbing YCL gangs.
The Koirala- Prachanda agreement stipulates that all cases related to violation of human rights by the army, police and Maoists would be referred to a commission. No action has been taken to pursue the commitment though it appears army and police are being targeted for their HR ‘violations’. Attackers on media have gone unpunished both before and after the ‘revolution’.
PRESS UNDER THREAT –GRIM PICTURE
President of the Federation of Nepali Journalists (FNJ), Dharmendra Jha, says many young journos are on the verge of quitting the profession unnerved by the threats to freedom of press. The latest victim is Madhes –based young woman reporter, Uma Singh. She was assassinated in January. A month earlier, in December, a leading media house, Himal Media was attacked after its magazine Himal Khabar Patrika and Nepali Times carried news against the Maoists.
Rameshwor Bohara, who had filed the investigative report, says, ‘With the King gone and the Maoists in power, I had hoped the situation to improve, but it has only worsened’. After the attack on his paper, he has been shunning limelight. ‘After the incident, I did not come out of my room for more than 15 days; used friend’s motorcycle; disguised myself; used different routes for my home’, he says with a wry smile.
The picture that emerges from Prachanda’s Nepal is rather grim. It puts question marks on the future of Nepal as a Republic.
The Maoists appear conscious of the uneasiness caused at home and abroad by their actions and plans like, for instance, continued commitment for establishing a ‘People’s Republic’. That goal is synonym for one party rule or a multi-party rule within the control of communist state. Or absolute power.
The ruling coalition is weak in checkmating the Maoists, who hold 220 seats in the 601- member Constituent Assembly. Nepal Congress, its nearest rival, is a distant second with about 100 members. Prachanda’s policy of divide and rule is keeping Nepal Congress and UML, the third largest party and coalition partner in their own turf wars.
United States, China and India are keenly watching the unfolding events with interest. Each of these three countries has a stake in well being of Nepal.
DELHI BASHING
The Maoists have been playing an anti-India card, ever since they came to power. Senior Maoist leader Mohan Vaidya holds India responsible for all the troubles of his country. ‘We are not going to tolerate India’s evil design. It is inciting anti-national elements into wrong doings,’ the hard-line Maoist said while speaking at the Reporters’ Club in Kathmandu.
Ironically, Delhi played no mean role in the coronation of Maoists in Kathmandu to the dismay of India’s long time friend, Nepal Congress, and Nepal watches in India. India has perfected a policy of remaining on the sidelines and not getting drawn into domestic fare of its neighbours. Neutrality is the name of the game. India has become inward looking with an electoral slugfest on cards and may not have time for no more than a passing interest in Nepal.
China is close to the present dispensation in Kathmandu. Prachanda undertook his first foreign visit as prime minister to Beijing. China is taking keen interest in rehabilitation of Maoist comrades and fighters. It is offering military hardware to the armed forces. To what extent these offers will influence army’s thinking is unclear though.
Washington has more than passing interest in the erstwhile Hindu Kingdom, though its hands are full in the region. It may not like to see the tranquility disturbed in Nepal.
It is clear from the low-key 2-day visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Richard Boucher, to Kathmandu in the first fortnight of February. He met leaders of the government and opposition to read the pulse of the nation. ‘Democracy is in risk as the ruling Unified CPN (Maoist) itself, is involved in attacking the press, the judiciary and the army’, the opposition told Boucher.
SEVERAL POSIBILITIES
The U.S. and U.K are closely following every move of Nepal Army’s top brass and the nuances of every remark they are making. The point of interest is: what will be Nepal Army’s response as an institution if it is pushed to the wall by the Maoists who are increasingly becoming impatient with every passing day.
The question is pregnant with several possibilities. And none can be ruled out. Going by the experience of democratically fragile South Asian countries and their moorings in feudalism.
Like the Maoists in the past, they also are targeting police stations. In one such attack on Syaulibang police post (42 kms from Khalanga, the headquarters of Pyuthan district) on February 6, 2009, Mongol Revenge Group looted weapons and killed the officer in charge of the post. According to Avenue TV, however, the attack could be the handiwork of another group, Pachahattar Youth Liberation Front.
Even the UN office of High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) is not spared from bomb attacks. A little known ‘Bhisan Himali Bagh’ carried out an attack on OHCHR office at Nepalgunj on Feb 14, 2009. .
To an extent, the prevailing ‘disorder’ in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the countryside is attributed to Young Communist League, YCL – the Maoist Youth Wing. It has been a law unto itself, prompting some commentators in The Kathmandu Post to describe YCL as the epicentre of lawlessness that has engulfed Nepal. Refusal to heed their demands and threats is resulting in brutal killings.
YCL’s unchecked vigilantism has spawned a cycle of vengeance between armed political groups and murder of people who refuse to give in to threats. Maoist aligned or affiliated trade unions are creating their own havoc with their extortions and charter of demands that have no relevance to the health of the industry.
The Nepal police are hopelessly demoralized. Their authority is undermined by vigilante groups. A sad commentary on the police was the attack on the personal assistant of Prime Minister Prachanda. Gunmen shot at and injured him very near his house in the heart of Kathmandu in February (2009).
UNREST IN TERAI
Unrest shows no signs of abating in Terai region, which is the agriculture heartland of Nepal. It accounts for 48 per cent of country’s population and 80 per cent of its commercial and industrial activity. Madheshis, as the Terai people are called, want a say in the governance of the country. Political parties and student groups have come up with their own charters. Not a day passes without a shut down in some part of the sprawling plains, which is next door to India.
Once Terai stood solidly behind the Maoists, and it was, indeed, their main support base. Today, it has slipped out of Maoist-fold. Madheshis who broke away from the Maoists and the PLA have floated their own parties. Their demands range from political reservations to self-determination and sovereign homeland.
Broken promises and inconsistencies between words and deeds are the two charges that are regularly made against Prime Minister Prachanda. One charge he is unable to shake off relates to return of properties seized by the guerillas before they were brought into the mainstream under a 2006 agreement between Prachanda and GP Koirala. Today Prachanda says ‘We will return that property legally’. But there is no further movement even on this offer.
In a report to the Security Council in January (2009), Ban Ki-moon, UN’s Secretary-General, lamented the lack of progress in returning Maoist seized property and in curbing YCL gangs.
The Koirala- Prachanda agreement stipulates that all cases related to violation of human rights by the army, police and Maoists would be referred to a commission. No action has been taken to pursue the commitment though it appears army and police are being targeted for their HR ‘violations’. Attackers on media have gone unpunished both before and after the ‘revolution’.
PRESS UNDER THREAT –GRIM PICTURE
President of the Federation of Nepali Journalists (FNJ), Dharmendra Jha, says many young journos are on the verge of quitting the profession unnerved by the threats to freedom of press. The latest victim is Madhes –based young woman reporter, Uma Singh. She was assassinated in January. A month earlier, in December, a leading media house, Himal Media was attacked after its magazine Himal Khabar Patrika and Nepali Times carried news against the Maoists.
Rameshwor Bohara, who had filed the investigative report, says, ‘With the King gone and the Maoists in power, I had hoped the situation to improve, but it has only worsened’. After the attack on his paper, he has been shunning limelight. ‘After the incident, I did not come out of my room for more than 15 days; used friend’s motorcycle; disguised myself; used different routes for my home’, he says with a wry smile.
The picture that emerges from Prachanda’s Nepal is rather grim. It puts question marks on the future of Nepal as a Republic.
The Maoists appear conscious of the uneasiness caused at home and abroad by their actions and plans like, for instance, continued commitment for establishing a ‘People’s Republic’. That goal is synonym for one party rule or a multi-party rule within the control of communist state. Or absolute power.
The ruling coalition is weak in checkmating the Maoists, who hold 220 seats in the 601- member Constituent Assembly. Nepal Congress, its nearest rival, is a distant second with about 100 members. Prachanda’s policy of divide and rule is keeping Nepal Congress and UML, the third largest party and coalition partner in their own turf wars.
United States, China and India are keenly watching the unfolding events with interest. Each of these three countries has a stake in well being of Nepal.
DELHI BASHING
The Maoists have been playing an anti-India card, ever since they came to power. Senior Maoist leader Mohan Vaidya holds India responsible for all the troubles of his country. ‘We are not going to tolerate India’s evil design. It is inciting anti-national elements into wrong doings,’ the hard-line Maoist said while speaking at the Reporters’ Club in Kathmandu.
Ironically, Delhi played no mean role in the coronation of Maoists in Kathmandu to the dismay of India’s long time friend, Nepal Congress, and Nepal watches in India. India has perfected a policy of remaining on the sidelines and not getting drawn into domestic fare of its neighbours. Neutrality is the name of the game. India has become inward looking with an electoral slugfest on cards and may not have time for no more than a passing interest in Nepal.
China is close to the present dispensation in Kathmandu. Prachanda undertook his first foreign visit as prime minister to Beijing. China is taking keen interest in rehabilitation of Maoist comrades and fighters. It is offering military hardware to the armed forces. To what extent these offers will influence army’s thinking is unclear though.
Washington has more than passing interest in the erstwhile Hindu Kingdom, though its hands are full in the region. It may not like to see the tranquility disturbed in Nepal.
It is clear from the low-key 2-day visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Richard Boucher, to Kathmandu in the first fortnight of February. He met leaders of the government and opposition to read the pulse of the nation. ‘Democracy is in risk as the ruling Unified CPN (Maoist) itself, is involved in attacking the press, the judiciary and the army’, the opposition told Boucher.
SEVERAL POSIBILITIES
The U.S. and U.K are closely following every move of Nepal Army’s top brass and the nuances of every remark they are making. The point of interest is: what will be Nepal Army’s response as an institution if it is pushed to the wall by the Maoists who are increasingly becoming impatient with every passing day.
The question is pregnant with several possibilities. And none can be ruled out. Going by the experience of democratically fragile South Asian countries and their moorings in feudalism.
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