LeT planning 'campaign' in Kashmir to coincide with US withdrawal from Kabul

Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toyaba(LET) is planning a major campaign in Jammu and Kashmir to match the timetable of the United States and NATO forces to quit Afghanistan, a noted American security expert says.

Although India and the USA are taking these prospects seriously, the US should not go beyond encouraging India-Pakistan dialogue, Stephen Tankel, a non-resident scholar, South Asia Programme at the Carnegie Foundation, said.

Asserting that “The separatists have lost, at least for the foreseeable future,” Tankel stresses that and India, on its part, should make the best of the “window of opportunity” it has in the form of there being a reduction in the militancy.

“Pakistani Militants Plan Their Own Pivot East,” Tankel says, referring to the US plans to evolve its pivot in Asia, moving further east after withdrawing from Afghanistan, ostensibly to confront China.

“Kashmir may no longer be the most dangerous fault line in the world, but it will remain a flashpoint for conflict for the foreseeable future,” Tankel warns after having conducted numerous ‘conversations’ with key people in Kashmir on both sides, summarized in a report made on July 9, 2013.

Tankel has some impressive collection of work on South Asia, including “Unpacking the Abbotabad Commission Report,” “Fountainhead of Jihad” and “Lashkar-e-Taiba Capable of Threatening U.S. Homeland”.

“Indications that Pakistan-based militants plan to reignite the jihad in Indian-administered Kashmir informed my decision to visit. Lashkar-e-Taiba a Pakistani militant group I follow closely, has been telling everyone who will listen – the press, their own rank-and-file, Kashmiri separatist leaders when they visit Pakistan, me when I last communicated with them – that they plan to ramp up in Kashmir as U.S. troops draw down in Afghanistan. Indian and American officials take this threat seriously, and an uptick in high-profile attacks this year suggests they are correct to do so.”

“Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) has claimed the major operations this year. Although its leadership is based in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, HM is an indigenous Kashmiri group. It is also somewhat of a stalking horse for the Lashkar, which counts far fewer actual Kashmiris in its ranks. The two appear to be working in tandem to slowly reignite the conflict, taking care to make any violence appear indigenous. This not only provides plausible deniability to Pakistan-based actors, but also is likely part of a strategy to trigger a genuine grassroots uprising. Indeed, beyond launching more high-profile attacks, militants are recruiting locals to engage in ad hoc attacks, according to Indian police officers. They are also said to be working through above-ground supporters to provoke civil unrest, of which Indian-administered Kashmir has seen plenty since the conflict subsided.

“Lashkar may be communicating instructions to its supporters via Voice Over Internet Protocol and sending money to support those stoking civil unrest as Indian officials allege. But this overlooks the truly indigenous nature of the protests that have occurred during the past few years and the persistent levels of animosity among the population, which indicate the New Delhi is missing an opportunity to solidify its gains.

His conversations separatist leaders, journalists, former militants, and members of civil society suggest that the call for Azadi (freedom)” may be coming to mean something different for the current generation.”

“In the past, it was the separatists call for freedom from India. Increasingly, it may mean freedom from an overly-securitized environment in which encounter killings still occur and the army remains immune from prosecution. It also increasingly may mean freedom to pursue the same opportunities as other Indians.

“Many of the complaints one hears in Kashmir are similar to those voiced elsewhere in India and pertain to corruption, poor governance and lack of economic opportunity. The difference is that it seems Kashmiris view these quotidian complaints through their troubled history of violent conflict.

“Kashmir is unlikely to see a return to the bad old days when roughly 2000 militants were chalking up attacks on a daily basis. There were 340 violent incidents in 2011, the last year for which data is available from the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs. Contrast that with 2565 in 2004, when the insurgency was already flagging, or the 1990s when whole cities like Sopore were “liberated” by the insurgents. Regenerating that level of conflict is too tall an order, especially with a population that has seen enough of war and wants very little to return to it.

“However, real grievances remain and because violent incidents are now the exception not the rule and there are so few militants in Kashmir, even a relatively modest uptick can have a disproportionate impact: on how the army, paramilitary forces and police respond; on the economy; on the population; and on India-Pakistan relations. Kashmir may no longer be the most dangerous fault line in the world, but it will remain a flashpoint for the foreseeable future,” cautions Tankel.

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