US President Donald Trump has minced no words in accusing Pakistan of playing a dangerous game by providing sanctuaries in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area to terrorist groups. He also spoke in favour of reducing US military aid to Pakistan. India will be watching to see how this approach plays out in the longer term

Apart from Trump’s criticism of Pakistan, two other interesting developments have taken place recently, which India also will be carefully observing.
The first was the proposed decision to cut off military aid to Pakistan altogether. ‘The president wants to cut off all military aid to Pakistan. That’s part of the strategy’, said a White House spokesman, according to a Foreign Policy report that was cited by the media.
During his meeting with close advisers at Camp David to discuss the US approach to Afghanistan, Trump was in favour of taking that drastic step because, in spite of the US aid provided to Pakistan, the latter has been backing the Taliban and the Haqqani network, which operates in Pakistan, close to the Afghanistan border.
In addition, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Joseph Votel, who led a delegation to Pakistan, made it clear to both the military and political leadership that action should be taken against terror groups targeting neighbouring countries (referring to India and Afghanistan).
‘In his discussions with Pakistani leaders, he emphasised that all parties must work to ensure that Pakistani soil is not used to plan or conduct terrorist attacks against its neighbours’, said the US Embassy in Islamabad.
Votel met with Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Defence Minister Khurram Dastgir, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Zubair Hayat and Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa to convey his message.
Following Trump’s speech on 21 August, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned that the US will indeed be willing to re-think vital aspects of the relationship with Pakistan if the latter did not stop providing assistance to terror groups, saying that ‘in terms of aid, their status as a non-NATO alliance partner – all of that can be put on the table.’

MILITARY AID TO BE CUT

The decision to cut the military aid that Washington provides to Islamabad did not come as a complete surprise. It could be argued that it was, in fact, foreshadowed by the May 2017 Budget reduction of military aid from US$225 million to US$100 million.
Even as the reduced amounts were proffered, State Department officials noted the continuing importance of Pakistan to the US due to its strategic location in the context of South and Central Asia and as an important economy: ‘Pakistan plays a key role in US counter-terrorism strategy, the peace process in Afghanistan, nuclear non-proliferation efforts, and stability and economic integration in South and Central Asia. It is also a large and growing economy offering profitability for US businesses’.

‘Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort in Afghanistan. It has much to lose by continuing to harbour terrorists,’ President Trump told Pakistan. Clearly, the Trump White House will will be taking a harder line in its dealings with Pakistan until it sees what it considers to be satisfactory results.

That was followed in June by calls from two Congressmen, Dana Rohrabacher and Ted Poe, for an end to US military assistance to Pakistan due to that country’s continued support for terror groups. In July, the US refused to release US$350 million, categorically stating that Pakistan was not doing enough to fight the Haqqani network.
According to the Pentagon, ‘The funds could not be released to the government of Pakistan at this time because the [defence] secretary could not certify that Pakistan has taken sufficient action against the Haqqani Network.’
Then, in early August, President Trump’s national security adviser, General H.R. McMaster, went on the record to state that Trump wants Pakistan to move away from its ‘paradoxical’ zero-sum approach and to end its support for the Taliban and the Haqqani network.

IMPLICATIONS

The reduced US military aid will be welcomed not just by India, but also by pro-democracy forces in Pakistan, including Nawaz Sharif, who had to step down as Prime Minister after being disqualified from Parliament. The decision to reduce military aid could help to alter the civil-military balance in Pakistan in the long term, especially since the Army was surprised by the harder stance taken by the Trump Administration.
The ability of the Army to charm officials in the Pentagon by highlighting its role in the fight against terror has now been called into question.
During a meeting at General Headquarters Rawalpindi, the Chief of Army staff stated that:
‘More than financial or material assistance, we seek acknowledgement of our decades-long contributions towards regional peace and stability, understanding of our challenges and, most importantly, the sacrifices the Pakistani nation and its security forces have rendered in [the] fight against terrorism and militancy.’
Those points may still be valid but the reality is that they are no longer registering in the White House.
India will welcome not just the decision to reduce military aid, but will also be delighted at the message that groups such as the Haqqani network should not be used as proxies with which to target India.
In addition, the US has adopted a firmer stand against terror groups.
On 16 August, Washington designated the Hizbul Mujahideen as a foreign terrorist group.
In June, the US had declared the group’s Pakistan-based chief Syed Salahuddin a global terrorist. All of Hizbul Mujahideen’s financial assets and property subject to US jurisdiction have been frozen and US citizens have been strictly prohibited from engaging in any transactions with the group.
Washington’s intentions of backing New Delhi were indicated by its earlier support for the Indian proposal to have Jaish-e-Mohammad leader Masood Azhar listed as a designated terrorist at the United Nations. The proposal, backed by the US, UK and France, has been repeatedly obstructed by China.
Many observers will be sceptical about the future of the Trump Administration’s tough stance towards Pakistan, dubbing it merely “transactional” in nature.
Still others would argue that the US President is simply being unpredictable and is enjoying turning things on their heads.
From the perspective of India, the new firmness in the US approach is welcome.
President Trump does need to realise, though, that his “America First” approach should not mean being isolationist.
If anything, the US, under Trump, needs to play a more proactive role in joining with other democratic countries to better fight terrorism and support the international order.

—-by Tridivesh Singh Maini, FDI Associate
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