India carried out multiple “surgical” military strikes inside Pakistan over a five-hour period on Sept 28th night. As many as seven “terrorist launching pads” were targeted on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control and “significant casualties” were inflicted on “terrorists and those trying to shield them.”
The “surgical strikes” had been aimed at “terrorist teams” positioned across the Line of Control for “launch” into India, Army’s Director General of Military Operations, Lt. General Ranbir Singh told the media in Delhi. These attack came ten days after Pakistan based Islamist militants attacked the Uri military base killing eighteen soldiers.
He said India has no further plans for cross-border actions. “However, the Indian Armed Forces are fully prepared to deal with any contingency which may arise.”
According to one report, the number of casualties runs into “double digits”. Indian forces did not strike at Pakistani military personnel or camps.
Pakistan’s military, meanwhile, is vehemently denying that India mounted any “surgical” cross-border attacks, calling the claim “an illusion” and “fabrication of truth” promoted by India “to create false effects.”
The Pakistani military does concede two of its soldiers were killed and nine others wounded on Sept 28th night. It is. however. attributing the casualties to cross-border artillery and gunfire—a regular occurrence across the Line of Control (LoC).
It is clear that New Delhi will unhesitatingly pursue its strategic interests and that vis –à- vis Pakistan it will no longer be bound by the so-called policy of “strategic restraint.”
As for Pakistan’s claims that there were no cross-border strikes, they are simply not credible. Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, various Pakistani government officials and political leaders have made statements that implicitly or explicitly contradict the military’s version of events.
Asif, in fact declared, “If India tries to do this again, we will respond forcefully.”
By denying that India has carried out a military raid inside Pakistan, Islamabad is seeking to avoid further escalation, without having to make a humiliating admission that it won’t make good on its repeated threats to answer any Indian cross-border thrust with a military strike of its own.
Fearing strategic isolation, Pakistan has drawn closer to its long-time ally China. But that has only increased its estrangement from Washington and fuelled its rivalry with India.
PAK BLUFF CALLED OFF
The Indian strikes have done several things.
First, it is now beyond doubt that India has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.
Many observers had believed that India would not carry out a cross-border strike on Pakistan as it did earlier against anti-India militants who were based in Myanmar for fear of prompting a nuclear response from Pakistan. Islamabad will undoubtedly be aware that in the time since the Indian military camp was attached mid-September, India would have planned a massive retaliatory response should Pakistan have employed its no-first-use nuclear option.
Second, the strikes on Pakistan have demonstrated to Islamabad that the Modi Administration is willing to use force to protect its territory and citizens and is capable of doing so.
Third, and arguably most dangerous of all for Pakistan, it is very likely that India will use these strikes to call the world’s attention to the fact that Pakistan was, indeed, complicit in militant strikes in India. This has the potential to bring about Pakistan’s further isolation.
The fact that the United States has chosen to admonish Pakistan for permitting militants to use its territory to carry out strikes against India in the wake of the Indian strikes without publicly remonstrating India demonstrates unequivocally where Washington’s sympathies lie.
It is very likely that having been humiliated by these strikes, which could have the same effect as the US one on Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden, Islamabad will look for retaliatory measures. Expect to see militant strikes against Indian personnel in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region, the use of the open Indo-Nepali border to infiltrate militants deeper into India to carry out attacks against Indians and Indian cities that are not usually targets and increased unrest in Kashmir.
India will, for its part, increase its efforts to further isolate Pakistan – it has already started blocking Pakistani cultural artists from entering India and proposes to block Pakistan International Airlines flights from its airspace. This could have major ramifications for Pakistan’s sovereignty, economy and foreign relations.
China may now be forced to re-evaluate its energy pipeline and other investments in Pakistan and India will undoubtedly pressure Russia against selling military systems to Pakistan.