Some commentators have started questioning the utility of BRICS as the tourist paradise of Goa on Arabian coast hosts the leaders of five emerging economies but it certainly cannot be compared to that tottering regional grouping called SAARC.  BRICS nations can survive whatever differences they may have, but India has a tough job ahead in maintaining equilibrium in its relations with China while India and Russia do need each other to allow any differences to leave a negative effect.
India’s problem with Russia has cropped up only in recent years. New Delhi thinks Moscow has undermined decades of its close relations by offering military cooperation to Pakistan. China has shown no let-up in its unfriendly gestures towards India. The latest is the blocking of a Brahmaputra tributary that originates in Tibet and the Chinese desire to ‘mediate’ between India and Pakistan.
China’s ‘mediation’ offer is an obvious attempt to please its ‘all weather’ friend. But it also looks like an ominous attempt by China to establish its ‘hegemony’—a word Pakistan uses for India—in South Asia. China should know that it has long been India’s stand that it will brook no third party ‘interference’ in its disputes with Pakistan.
It makes no difference whether the Chinese intentions were conveyed by its media or its officials. The Chinese media is state-controlled and is often used to transmit important messages. It is important to note that the Chinese have offered to ‘mediate’ because they say there is ‘imbalance’ of power in South Asia. China cannot correct the ‘imbalance’ by extending blind support to Pakistan’s reliance on terror to back its state policies.
Days earlier, China had gratuitously stated that India’s decision to fence its border with Pakistan was ‘irrational’ and it will affect India-China relations. China has taken a very pro-Pakistan line on the terror attack at a military camp in Uri, accusing India of jumping to point fingers at Pakistan without any investigation or evidence.
This can only be interpreted to mean that China endorses Pakistan’s policy of using its proxies to attack targets in India, both civilian and military. That was clear from the time China started to resist UN action against intentionally proclaimed and Pakistan-based terrorists like Hafiz Sayeed and Masood Azhar.
Prime Minister Modi has chosen to present his tough face to Pakistan but is reluctant to adopt a similar attitude towards China. If he accepts—and he obviously does—that both Pakistan and China work against the interests of India he has to treat the two in more or less the same manner. Getting ‘tough’ with a country does not mean declaring a war against it or allowing bilateral relations to reach a point of no return.
Relations with Pakistan have moved towards the bottom because it has no interest in pursuing a policy of friendship with India, largely because its military brass would not like that. In China the ruling party (Communist Party) is the single centre of power—civil and military. The Chinese leaders do not speak the language of Pakistan. But the frequency of unfriendly noises and gestures reaching India from Beijing has been increasing disturbingly.
It may not be too far-fetched to imagine that it has something to do with the Chinese fear that worsening India-Pakistan relations will hamper the progress of its grandiose China Pakistan Economic Corridor project in which it is investing $46 billion. China may also be unhappy to see its ‘all weather’ friend in great discomfort because of its near global isolation. The Pakistanis are pleased to hear China endorse their India policy. Together the two countries continue to work in tandem to check in whatever manner they can India’s rise as a global power.
The one-on-one meetings that the prime minister will have with Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, when he attends the BRICS summit in Goa should be used to clear the air of mistrust between India and Russia, a steadfast friend from the Soviet era. India was not pleased when Russia decided to conduct a joint ‘anti-terror’ military exercise in Pakistan last month, overlooking the outrage in India caused by Pakistani terrorists attack on Indian military targets.
India’s concern is perhaps not so much about the maiden joint exercise with a country that has remained implacably hostile towards India but the fact that it was carried out as an ‘anti-terror’ exercise. India has pointed out to Russia the absurdity of it. It is not hidden from anyone that Pakistan uses terror as a matter of its state policy. Its description as a sponsor of terror is disputed by very few.