Iran has blamed the United States and Israel for the death of Roshan as it did for three other killings – Masoud Ali Mohammadi, a physics professor at Tehran University (Jan 12, 2010), Majid Shahriari, a nuclear engineer for the Atomic Energy Commission (Nov 29, 2010), and Darioush Rezaeinejad, a nuclear scientist at K.N. Toosi University of Technology in Tehran (July 23, 2011). Another nuclear scientist, Fereydoon Abbasi, who works at the Shahid Beheshti University, however survived a bomb attack on Nov 29, 2010. He was seriously wounded.    

“The bomb used for killing Roshan was the same as the ones previously used”, Tehran’s deputy governor, Safarali Baratloo, said. Two men on a motorcycle attached a magnetic bomb attacked his car.

Iranians believe that these car bomb attacks and series of mysterious explosions at a missile base and two nuclear – related sites are aimed to suspend Iran’s drive for atomic power said to be connected to the nuclear. A computer virus is said to have extensively damaged to the systems.  Tehran’s needle of suspicion points at Tel Aviv. The French newspaper Le Figaro quoted Iraqi officials as saying that the Mossad was recruiting Iranian dissidents in the Kurdish region to carry out operations such as the latest car bombing in Tehran

“Patrick Clawson, who directs the Iran Security Initiative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the starting assumption would be that Mossad did this. The attack’s sophisticated hallmark, a bomb with magnets, suggests it was “carried out by a very professional foreign intelligence service,” he added. On their part, Israelis have denied the allegation.

Opinion is divided on whether Iran has acquired the N-capability or not.  The International Atomic Energy Agency has said it has evidence that Iran has begun enriching uranium at a new underground site at Fordow that is deep within a mountain and apparently impervious to bombing. The enrichment is said to be up to 20 percent, far in excess of the level needed for peaceful purposes such as electricity production, as Iranian officials long have claimed.

Israel however believes that Tehran has already crossed the first hurdle. Danny Yatom, a former head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, said on Israeli Radio that Iran already has the know-how to produce an atomic weapon.

Washington doesn’t share this perception. US Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta said this week that Iran is trying to achieve nuclear weapons capability but had not yet started to produce a bomb. “If the Iranians start to develop a bomb, the U.S. would act”, he said but did not elaborate how Tehran is going to be stopped.

While who did the car bombing will remain a mystery for a long while, there is no denying that both sides are high on provocative rhetoric. And diplomacy, particularly through IAEA route has not been allowed to be in full play.

Going by the experience of the West with Saddam Hussain’s Baghdad, it is essential to first get clarity on whether Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon or achieve the capability of doing so. Simultaneously, it is necessary to establish beyond doubt that Tehran is indeed after a nuclear bomb and is not developing the N-technology for peaceful uses.  All this will be possible if only the issue is addressed without a blinkered vision and emotions are piped down. Another caveat will be in order.

The champions of N-proliferation must first establish their credentials. So far their track record is any thing but praiseworthy since they have allowed their N-concerns to be subordinated to the strategic interests as was witnessed in a rogue scientist ran a global Nuclear Wal-Mart as the front man for the establishment of the country. It is essential for the Non-proliferation Ayatollahs to remember that selectivism does their cause no good.

Heat up in the Gulf will translate into a big spurt in oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians had threatened to close last week, is the only exit from the oil-rich Persian Gulf for one-fifth of the world’s oil exports. The world, both the West, particularly, the United States, and the developing countries like India, cannot afford to see oil prices overshadow promising signs of their economic recovery.