It has not been the practice of Pakistan’s army chiefs to talk in conciliatory tones when it comes to India. They have thrived on tough postures towards this country. Pakistan military dictators striking soft lines occasionally are seen as tactical moves. In this context, General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s signalling of change in his otherwise tough stance comes as a surprise.

In his speech at Islamabad’s high-powered event called Islamabad Security Dialogue, he set out a vision of regional economic integration for the betterment of India and Pakistan as well as for South Asia. He specifically asked New Delhi to create a “conducive environment” in Kashmir for the resumption of a dialogue for peace between the two countries. He did not spell out the nature of “conducive environment” in Kashmir. We know it well that Pakistan’s low-cost proxy war, started by General Zia-ul-Haq, has mainly been responsible for creating areas of tensions between the two countries in Kashmir and beyond.

The Talibanisation of Pakistan has already upset the old equations between India and Pakistan. Also, the official embrace of religious terrorism has surfaced at a time when there is a growing resentment against such a tendency even in the West. 

The Pakistan army has been known to have been “covering fire” for years to militants’ terrorists entering Kashmir, apart from providing funding and training. I have always said that Pak-sponsored trans-border terrorism has been the core issue, and not Kashmir, which has not allowed “conducive environment” for peace in the subcontinent. In fact, terrorism cannot be viewed in isolation. It has to be seen as a major threat to the very existence of India as a democratic polity.

General Bajwa, this time, did not recite Islamabad’s old mantra by recalling the old Security Council resolutions on Kashmir. At the same time, he made it clear that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, “sub-continental reproachment” would always remain “susceptible to derailment”. He, therefore, felt that it is time “to bury the past and move forward”. 

The question is: why this change of attitude on the part of Pakistan’s military establishment? The simple answer is: Pakistan’s serious economic and financial crisis. So much so that it is faced with the threat of being blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). FATF threat apart, Islamabad is faced with multiple domestic issues in different parts of the country, which even the Pakistan army is finding it difficult to control.

At a strategic level, faced with a huge economic crisis that has only got worse due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and amid a geopolitical flux in West Asia, humiliating demands from even friendly nations to return their loans, Pakistan has been signalling to the world that is rethinking its national security model. 

Islamabad’s North-West Frontier has become a breeding ground for a growing Islamic militancy, which threatens the very stability of Islamabad. Stability in Pakistan’s federally administrated tribal areas and North-West Frontier Province also threatens NATO’s strategic Khyber Pass lifeline to Afghanistan.

Indeed, amidst corruption, mismanagement and misplaced priorities, Pakistan’s economy is in shambles. The only thing that has kept Pakistan somewhat economically afloat has been borrowings, both from domestic and foreign sources. Its total external debt stands at a whopping USD 111 billion. This indebtedness has come at a time when Islamabad is already living beyond its means.

Amidst these harsh economic realities and ongoing domestic troubles from Islamic militancy, General Bajwa’s changing stances towards India can be understood. Islamabad’s military supremo, no wonder, talks about a rational choice to see the region in terms of geo-economic integration rather than geo-strategic rivalries. However, if the General means business, then he will have to reframe the entire range of policy and strategic framework towards India, keeping Kashmir in view. There can be no half way house to the peace process.

True, Pakistan military rulers have generally failed to appreciate India’s sensitivities and its ability to hit back, if need be. Pakistan has had to pay heavily every time it engaged this country in an armed confrontation. Even the China factor is not going to make much difference for Pakistan this time. Therefore, the question to raise is: how serious is General Bajwa about his peace overtures? We can only express doubt on this count unless Pakistan gives up its terror-related proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir and beyond. 

It may be worthwhile for Islamabad to remember that the world is more determined than ever before to crush terrorism. Given the increasing menace of terrorism, even the Islamic world is no longer in a position to sit on the fence. It is sure to take a clearer stand against terrorism.

These hard facts should prompt Pakistani policymakers and strategists to work out a new blue print for its relations with India and the rest of the world. Viewed in this light, it must stop sending armed infiltrators across the border in Kashmir and beyond.

Will General Bajwa and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan come out of Pakistan’s old mindset? Unless this is convincingly shown, India cannot be sure of General Bajwa’s proposed road to peace. The best option for New Delhi right now should be wait and watch till General Bajwa shows his next concrete move forward to curb terrorism. 

– By Hari Jai Singh The writer is a veteran journalist and commentator