What will be China upto in the New Year 2022?

Well, China may flex its muscles to expand its hegemony from Taiwan to Lithuania and from Greenland the Horn of Africa.

And the D- day?

Any day after the Grand Spectacle of Winter Olympics end in Beijing in late February.

This scenario appears a near possibility since the reigning helmsman, Xi Jinping has a penchant for risky adventures on land and sea.  Moreover, he would love to go down in history by realising or attempting to realise his dream of strategic dominance in Asia in the near term.

Beijing’s moves will depend on how the West will react to the belligerence of Russia President Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine issue.  Russian deployment of massive forces on the borders with Ukraine and Belarus has made the region a conflict zone by adding to the worries of United States.   The Chinese as also the Russians are keen to see how America puts its act together.

This is a waiting game. Because, President Biden is not cut in the tweet friendly Donald Trump and is making very calibrated moves whether it is Ukraine or South China Sea. For the record, Ukraine does not figure in the sphere of American interest or influence as it is far off American shores while the US has to stretch its resources to keep its interest in South China Sea afloat.

China may not like to be in the waiting mode. It has already upped the ante on Taiwan in South China Sea. Also, with India in the snow-capped Himalayan mountains, particularly in the Ladakh region by fortifying its side of the border with good roads and bridges, and in Arunachal Pradesh with the provocative exercise of giving Chinese names to the towns on the Indian side.

President Xi Jinping may not itch for a show down with India since China is still recovering from the diplomatic and military snub Delhi administered last year. But he will not be averse to take military risks elsewhere for short term sweepstakes.   

Hence the question: What if Beijing closes the Taiwan Strait to sea traffic and declares the East and South China seas no-fly zones, claiming that both are ‘sovereign Chinese territory’.

This is a real possibility any time this year, going by the Taiwan bashing the Chinese media is basking in these days.

For this feat, President Xi Jinping will have to first assemble a multi-platform assault force on the Chinese coast close to Taiwan.

Simultaneously, China will have to let loose a propaganda blitzkrieg calling for the “reunification” of Taiwan with the Mainland.  

For the land of TikTok with pranks, stunts and fake news in more than 150 markets, and in 75 languages, the false flag operation rests on the old bogey that the US is threatening China’s security by providing military assistance to Taipei.

Well, the ensuing would be no more than a Chinese replay of Putin’s tactics over the Ukraine, says Peter Jennings, executive director of Australian Strategic Policy Institute, (ASPI), a defence and strategic policy think tank based in Canberra.

What would Biden do (in such a scenario)? He could threaten economic sanctions, and toy with the military option. It is also possible that the US leader could limit the conflict to the diplomatic corps, which interalia means no war drums.

Wryly remarks, Peter Jennings: If the US response was to threaten economic sanctions but leave military action off the table, “Xi could well conclude that ‘reunification’ of Taiwan with China by bluff and coercion is worth trying.”

In his year-ender commentary, “A new year, and fresh turmoil in world order,” the Australian egg-head opines that the United States will not adopt the same approach to China on the Taiwan issue and to Russia on the Ukraine issue.    Because, Taiwan is more central to the core of Asian security than Ukraine is to Western Europe. Taiwan under Beijing’s control will be an existential threat to the security of Japan and to US military dominance of the Pacific. Difficult to disagree with the prognosis!

Now cut to four more possible conflict points as Chinaseeks to expand its hegemony in the Year 2022. These are Solomon Islands, Lithuania, Greenland, and Horn of Africa.

The antics of beleaguered Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare in the face of civil unrest are making Solomon Islands proxy of China in the Coral Sea. This naturally is not to the liking of regional power, Australia and its Nato allies.

Sogavare, like President Gotabaya of Sri Lanka, is looking to Beijing for Yuan nirvana.

“China Aid is based on respect, with tangible benefits,” says Li Ming, the Chinese ambassador to Honiara but the locals are witnessing a repeat of Colombo story – strategic concessions and favours to the Bamboo capitalist in return for bankrolling the government, and deployment of Chinese police for domestic policing.  

All this has security implications to the dismay of neighbours, as South Asia realised after Sri Lanka’s tryst with China!

Lithuania, a small European Union nation, is in the Chinese crosshairs for trying to deepen its ties with Taiwan.  China, in an aggressive posture, has threatened an economic blockade – exclusion of Lithuanian entities from the Chinese market.

This is no more than coercive trade diplomacy; it has wider ramifications since China move will   undermine the EU as a single market. It is difficult to crystal gaze the response of Brussels as yet. EU sees the Chinese trade practices as a new hegemony that can neither be accepted nor tolerated.  Some fireworks can be witnessed in 2022.

Greenland is another emerging sphere of conflict as the Chinese investment hawks trade influence for funds.  It is a semi-autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark but is cash-strapped status. The talk is that if Greenland tries to move toward independence, it may attract Chinese investment to tide over its troubles.   The question doing rounds is whether accepting Chinese aid will be a wise move. This is because already Greenland has had to grapple with security risk issues with a Chinese company.

When Denmark planned the expansion of Nuuk’s airport in Greenland, the Chinese Communication Construction Company, (CCCC), offered to finance the entire project. During the final stage of negotiations, Denmark found the Chinese investments a security risk and agreed to foot 33 percent of the total bill ($109 million). The Chinese company rejected the offer and dropped its bid.     

2022 will see China play a more active role in the Horn of Africa. Beijing has just created the post of special envoy for the region. And elevated its ties with Eritrea to a “strategic partnership” though the country is facing US sanctions.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited Eritrea, four-days after the New Year Day on the first leg of his inaugural overseas tour of the year. President Isaias Afwerki is considered an “old friend” of China. He received military training in China as a member of the Eritrean Liberation Front.

For Beijing, Eritrea represents a strategic opportunity. It borders Djibouti, where China has its only overseas military base; its long coastline offers access to the Red Sea. 

China has made big investments in the country: in late 2019, the China Shanghai Corporation for Foreign Economic and Technological Cooperation (SFECO) began construction of a 500 km road connecting Eritrea’s capital Massawa in the Northern Red Sea region with Assab, a port in southern Eritrea along the Red Sea.  

Wang criticised the US sanctions, saying that “non-regional forces are destabilising and creating conflicts in the region.” And in what is construed as a snub to the US, he asked the Horn of Africa countries to “resolve various ethnic, religious and regional differences in an African way”.

Wang – Speak signals the Chinese resolve to deepen and broaden its involvement in the Horn of Africa.  Clearly, China and its helmsman are going to make their presence felt in a power show that will see no dull moment in the Year 2022.  (POREG)