The Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi can be said to have forced his one day visit to Delhi. It came within a day of his parroting the Pakistani line on Kashmir at a conference of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Islamabad. That had invoked a sharp response from India and Delhi could have declined to host Wang.

The visit, not unexpectedly, failed to make any breakthrough in the frosty bilateral relations following the Chinese aggression in Ladakh in April 2020.  Several rounds of military level and even ministerial (special representatives) level talks have not altered the situation. India’s repeated calls for ‘disengagement’ have elicited the by now familiar Chinese response: India should keep aside the border dispute and do more trade with China.

A realistic assessment of India-China relations would rule out any significant ‘breakthrough’ in the near future, irrespective of visits to each other’s country by top officials. The best that can be achieved by these visits is that temperatures can be kept under control to prevent escalation to a dangerous level.

Beijing is on an expansionist trip, intoxicated with the idea that it has become the most important country in the world. The Chinese treat India as a lesser country but of late have started to worry about India’s growing ties with the West, especially the US.

The US, so far the unchallenged super power, has faced many reverses in recent years. Afghanistan was a bad enough experience; now the Russians have showed that the US cannot do much to save Ukraine from the Russian aggression. Still, India-US closeness unnerves China.

To be able to establish itself as a great world power, China cannot carry on with a naked, provocative, aggressive posture. It has to demonstrate a willingness to accommodate the differences it has with other countries, especially India which arguably it views as a country that it cannot manipulate or intimidate with periodic forays into border areas. The Wang visit could be seen as a series intended to camouflage China’s real intentions and project it as a ‘peace-loving’ and reasonable neighbour of India.      

There was not even a remote indication of a positive change at LAC. China has been refusing to vacate the territories along the LAC where Indian troops were regularly patrolling before April 2020.

Of course, refusing permission to the plane of the Chinese foreign minister to land in Delhi would have aggravated the situation which India would not have liked. So, after a ‘surprise’ stay of a few hours in Kabul, the Chinese leader landed in Delhi to a frosty welcome that did not see his Indian counterpart receiving him at the airport.

The Chinese leader would not have been surprised at that. But he had no choice but to go ahead with the India visit for an important reason from the Chinese point of view.

In the month of June this year, China will be hosting the BRICS summit in Xiamen.  It will not be a virtual meeting, as used to be the case with transnational meetings in the months of the raging Covid-19 pandemic. For the success of this summit, it is necessary that the heads of all the members—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—attend.

China does not seem to be sure that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would fly to Xiamen for the meeting. It was Wang’s remit to make out a strong case for Modi’s presence at the summit when he talked to Jaishankar, his Indian counterpart.

Nothing was said about Modi’s likely visit to China in June during the media briefing following   Wang – Jaishankar talks. Wang too would not have liked the matter to be discussed in public if the Indian response did not indicate Modi’s certain attendance.

A similar BRICs conference in Xiamen in 2017 had also faced the possibility of India’s absence because the Doklam dispute—Chinese territorial aggression at the tri-junction of India, Bhutan and China—had savored India-China relations. But the Chinese had successfully assured India that the matter would be resolved to mutual satisfaction. It paved the way for India’s attendance at the summit.

Although the Doklam dispute was said to have been resolved, subsequent Chinese behaviour belied the Indian hope of a permanently satisfactory solution. The Chinese were reportedly building roads in the area, raising apprehensions in India.

India would have been wiser after that event and would not easily accept any Chinese assurances on such matters. China has rarely displayed good intentions when it comes to resolving border or territorial issues, not only with India but almost all its neighbours. The so-called resolution of land or maritime disputes between China and its neighbours have all come on terms favourable to China. China finds India too defiant for its comfort.

—-By a Poreg Commentator