The flying visit of the US secretary of state Mike Pompeo to Islamabad on September 5 is reported to have opened the door to a ‘reset’ in the ties between the two formerly close military allies. To make it look possible, Pakistan has promised to end terrorism that thrives on its soil. But the portents in Pakistan do not suggest success of the reset vows. For a real turn around in the relations between the two countries Pakistan has to give up its usual duplicitous ways and be sincere on delivering on what it promises. That has always been a difficult task for Pakistan and under its new prime minister, Imran Khan, the situation looks no different.
Forget the venomous anti-US statements he regularly made prior to the polls many of his cabinet colleagues earned their spurs by projecting themselves as anti-US—and, of course, anti-India. They support the US-hating fundamentalists, as does Imran Khan. There is not even a remote hint that Imran Khan will keep distance from the more rabid elements and defy their diktats, as he promised.
Under clear pressure from fundamentalists, he has just removed an Ahmedia minority member from an economic panel that he had formed to advise him on ways to extricate the country from the financial morass it is in.
There is no question of Imran Khan—an out and out favourite of the Pakistan army– being able to have full freedom over his country’s defence and foreign policies which remain firmly under army control. What the army wants has been enunciated unambiguously by the country’s army chief: ‘Revenge’ for the death of Kashmiris. That can only mean another war with India. Yet, Pakistan is trying to mislead the world by claiming that it wants ‘peace’ with India.
Many Pakistani ministers have stated that the army and the civilian government are on the same page on all matters. This is a clever way of admitting that the civilian administration has no intention to act against the wishes of the powerful army which has shown a liking for destabilizing elected civilian governments. It is found to be more convenient than staging a coup. Only recently, the army had a civilian prime minister sent to jail in connivance with the judiciary and also had him disqualified from contesting polls for the rest of his life.
Imran Khan owes his ascendency to army’s backing. He is almost certain to face opposition from the army if he makes any move to improve relations with India over the head of the generals. He cannot engage India in talks or use any other way, including trade, as a means to end the traditional hostility towards India without first making sure that India hands over Kashmir to Pakistan—an impossibility.
In fact, Imran Khan is wedded to the idea of wresting Kashmir from India before talking even a small step towards improving relations with the eastern neighbour. The Pakistani assurance given to the US that it will uproot all terror networks from territories under its control cannot be taken at its face value.
A major factor in Pakistan’s current embittered relations with the US is the latter getting increasingly closer to India, Pakistan’s ‘eternal’ enemy. Pakistanis make no bones about it even when knowing full well that the US will find it hard to dump India to please a country that gave America nothing but ‘lies and deceit’ in return for billions of dollars in aid, to quote the US President, Donald Trump.
Of course, the US might make some gestures to Pakistan which will be seen as marking a thaw in bilateral relations. The Pakistanis, for instance, are gasping for breath because of the financial crunch and debt repayment problems. The US could make a conciliatory gesture by facilitating IMF bailout for Pakistan. A part of the military funds withheld in recent months may also be released to Pakistan.
However, unless the US is once again willing to be fooled by the Pakistanis, it will have to make sure that Pakistan takes genuine and sincere steps to wind up the huge terror network that it nurtures. It used to be commonly believed that when the US asks Pakistan to ‘do more’ on terror it confines itself to the terror groups working against US interest in Afghanistan and the Afghan government. But now the US has hinted that its call to Pakistan to ‘do more’ also includes India-centric terror groups.
India does not expect Pakistan to do so. But it can expect Pakistan to pay lip service to that demand and even try to hoodwink the US into believing that it is taking action against India-specific terror groups. India should know that Pakistan is highly unlikely to do so when it has found it useful to bleed India with thousand cuts.
The failure, rather refusal, of Pakistan to act against groups like LeT and JeM should the US revive its largess to it would have an adverse impact on India-US ties. As it is India-US ties have still a lot of issues to sort out. There is much resentment within the country that the US wants to dictate India’s relations with third countries like Iran and Russia. But the US will not like to see any setback in ties with India while looking for an uncertain reset of ties with a roguish Pakistan.
Despite the routine anti-US rhetoric in Pakistan, the country is desperate to get closer to the US. A trick it is using is to din into the American ears that if they do not help Pakistan—financially as well as militarily—the Islamic republic with its large radicalized population will join the Chinese orbit, denying the US whatever little leverage it has on the reckless and nuclear-armed nation.
The fact is that Pakistan has been under Chinese influence for quite a few years. The Pakistanis themselves have been declaring with some bravado that the US has no influence over them. Make no mistake the Pakistanis are neither willing nor in a position to come out of the Chinese grip because the two countries share a common antipathy towards India. The ever mounting Chinese debt makes it harder for Pakistan to be anything but a Chinese vassal, which will be another hurdle in the reset of US-Pakistan ties.