Will Ukraine Conflict Impact Sino-Russian Defence Ties

Will Ukraine Conflict Impact Sino-Russian Defence Ties

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The possibility is real of China speeding up the modernization of its military and its nuclear arsenal taking advantage of the distressed situation of its military friend, Russia.

Such a scenario emerging as a by-product of the Ukraine conflict is already worrying the United States. That is the primary reason why the western world is continuously calling on China to use its ties with Russia to end the invasion of Ukraine.

Western defense organisations are already figuring out the possible scenarios that the conflict situation could lead to. 

The Diplomat defines the West’s dilemma succinctly: “How bilateral military relations develop in the months and years ahead will have direct effect on the two countries’ ability to modernize their forces, credibly deter adversaries, and protect national interests.”

SINO -RUSSIAN DEFENCE TIES: ONE WAY STREET

China and Russia are close defense partners. It is more of a one-way relationship that is advantageous to Beijing than Moscow.

Russia wants to sell its military training concepts and technology. China wants to accelerate the process of modernising its military.

Both are already in a defense cooperation relationship. Sale of aircraft engines, as also maintenance and joint development of heavy-lift helicopters are already on the anvil though the Ukraine conflict and the subsequent western sanctions may put a temporary stop to that.

The Americans, however, think that the cooperation may be sandbagged by China’s “reverse engineering, competition for arms sales in foreign markets, and China’s lessening dependency on Russian imports”.

Both countries conduct frequent military exercises. Their “Joint Sea” series are now regular features, the last one held in October 2021. They conduct air and missile defense exercises under the programme, “Aerospace Security”. Combined air and naval patrols take place in Asian seas since 2019 in close range of Japan. 

China has acquired “advanced Russian platforms and equipment that have been crucial to the People’s Liberation Army, PLA’s modernization, and Chinese troops purportedly learn much from training with their Russian counterparts (who, unlike Chinese service members, actually have recent combat experience)”.

Ironically, it is Russia that is currently facing problems in procuring aircraft spare parts and maintenance programmes for its military fleet because of the western sanctions. Even Chinese companies are said to be refusing to help out Russia. 

Though China is reducing its dependence on military imports, in the absence of any possibility of the West helping it with defense procurements, it has to look towards Russia irrespective of how the Ukraine conflict impacts their bilateral relations. 

FANCIFUL THEORIES

There are some fanciful theories floating in the western media about how China’s militarisation may be affected if Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcibly removed from power in the near future.

The Diplomat ventures out to speculate that in such a case, President Xi Jinping “may require time to familiarize himself and build trust with the new leader, which could lead to China taking a more cautious approach to bilateral military cooperation in the interim”.

Western analysts also feel that in such a situation, China would not want to confront the world by taking sides with Russia and may reduce technical cooperation, freeze joint development projects, water down military exercises or multi-lateralise current joint operations.

The United States is expected to be the biggest winner “in a state of weakened China-Russia military ties”.

The western hopes, however, rest on the hope that a reduced cooperation between Russia and China would necessarily slow down Beijing’s pace of military modernisation.

In reality, the reverse may be true because the transformation of its military into a modern force is a nationalist objective of the Chinese Communist Party and which is not dependent on extraneous factors. 

WEST IN ASIA – CHINA TAKE

A modern military is China’s answer to what it sees as western “interference” in its areas of influence in Asia.

So, if Beijing perceives that the West through agencies like QUAD is growing in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region, it would not hesitate to continue its military with Russia at all costs. 

The Diplomat argues: “China may find it beneficial to visibly strengthen its military ties with Russia if it believes the chances of an Indo-Pacific conflict are growing and that military cooperation with Russia could enhance its deterrence messaging against the US and its allies.”

An increased defense cooperation may mean importing Russian submarine technologies, possible cooperation on the issue of nuclear weapons, and China convincing Russia to reduce its weapons sales to countries with China has territorial disputes. 

CHINA’s GOAL- NEW WORLD ORDER

Asked to describe China’s strategic goal, diplomats at more than a dozen embassies in Beijing are in near unanimity that China wants a world order built around spheres of influence, with China in control of Asia, Russia wielding a veto over security arrangements in Europe and America pushed back to its own shores.

If such an order is helped into existence by Russia’s war in Ukraine, so be it.

But China’s overwhelming interest is in its own rise, and whether it will be blocked by America.

In China’s view, the main global contest is between it and a declining America that is too racist and vicious to allow an Asian giant to become a peer.

If the invasion of Ukraine continues to negatively impact on Russia, one thing is certain. The balance of defense cooperation will shift in China’s favour. China will not lose the opportunity of “using” Russia to tune their military exercises to suit China’s needs.

That is where the US worries come in, that a beleaguered Russia could be easily persuaded by China to help augment or modernise the latter’s nuclear arsenal.

The Economist recently quoted Zhao Tong of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Beijing as saying: “Nuclear weapons are one area where China thinks that Russia still possesses superior capabilities in certain areas, and possesses richer operational and training experience.”

The situation may not be as alarmist as the western powers think.

BEIJING -DETERMINATION

The United States and Europe have over decades reached a high level of interoperability among their defense personnel and organisations.

That is not yet the case with China and Russia.

Their languages of communication are different, their weapons systems are not fully compatible and exchangeable and importantly, they do not have a defense treaty in operation.

As authoritarian powers, neither wants the other to interfere in each other’s internal affairs, especially their expansionist programmes.

But there is no guarantee that China will subscribe to these factors when it comes to gradually matching its nuclear capabilities with that of the United States.

The oft-suggested Chinese objective of China increasing its stock of nuclear warheads to 1,0000 by 2030 is a niggling reminder of Beijing’s determination! 

  • By James Crickton