The world asks with bated breath as Russian invades Ukraine: Is Taiwan next? China is doing or saying nothing that would settle the nerves.

The American media is already speculating that, in the words of The Atlantic, Russia’s action “makes the frightening possibility of China seizing control of the island more real”.

The respectable publication says in an article: “As Russian tanks roll over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s crisis will reverberate around the world, possibly most dangerously in the Taiwan Strait. An attempt by Beijing to claim Taiwan by force has just become more likely. That’s not necessarily because there is a direct link between Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s menacing of Taiwan, but because the war for Ukraine is the most unfortunate indication yet of the frightening direction of global geopolitics: Autocrats are striking back.”

In fact, The Atlantic is in a sense of despair that it was wrong to think that the disintegration of the USSR in 1991 coincided with dictators being on the run everywhere and that globalisation was spreading liberal political ideals.

“Putin’s Ukraine war exposes how wrong that line of thinking was. What the US and its allies achieved in the 1990s was not a final victory over authoritarianism, but a mere respite. For years, the American-led liberal democratic consensus has been eroding in Turkey, Myanmar, Brazil, The Philippines … Still, Putin’s invasion marks a new stage, heralds a new era—one of authoritarian aggression…No country, though, is as big a threat to the liberal world order as China.”

Here is the publications’ prophecy on China:

“President Xi Jinping’s nationalist fervour, commitment to the restoration of Chinese power, and more aggressive approach compared with his predecessors when it comes to territorial and maritime disputes, relations with the US and its allies, as well as the international system writ large, have already become a destabilizing force in Asia.

“Taiwan is on this tenuous front line. Just as Putin can’t tolerate Ukrainian sovereignty, the Chinese Communist Party will never accept the separateness of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a core part of China occupied by an illegitimate (and by the way, democratic) government. Gaining control over Taiwan, or as the party prefers to call it, ‘reunification,’ is a primary goal of Chinese foreign policy. In a world order where authoritarian states are more assertive and democratic allies are on the back foot, the chances of war over Taiwan increase. Xi has already been intimidating the government in Taipei by sending squadrons of jets to harass the island, while Beijing’s complete suppression of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong undermines any hope that Taiwan would retain a semblance of its current freedom were it to be incorporated into Communist Party–led China.”

It is, of course, too premature to give a date for China’s so-called advance against Taiwan.

The simple explanation is, unlike Putin, Xi is not “amassing an invasion force on the strait separating Taiwan from the Chinese mainland”.

Unlike Putin, the Chinese in him makes Xi rely more on patience than hurry because he believes Taiwan’s is inevitably China’s and so he can wait for the right time.

Putin’s open aggression is important in the sense it tells the world what total authoritarianism can do and how.

And if the United States, European Union and Nato do nothing to thwart Putin other than heap sanctions against him, it will send a specific message to authoritarian regimes like Xi’s. They would want to test the outer limits of western liberal politics time and again.

Significantly, Xi and his ilk may interpret the western reaction short of military intervention as a sign of growing American weakness. A leader like Xi can fatalistically believe it to be the inevitable American decline and see in it the necessary rise of China. That is problematic.

There cannot be a time frame for such a plausibility.

China is already playing the Russian roulette, much to the West’s consternation. The Asian giant has in recent weeks been leaning towards Russia as the Ukraine build-up continued.

Beijing’s reaction was at four levels.

 Blame the US and NATO for the conflict.
 Provide tacit diplomatic support to Russia.
 Urge resolution of conflict through dialogue.
 Stress principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference

Optimists may say China too must have been surprised by Putin’s sudden march into Ukraine and, therefore, tried to balance its strategic ties with Russia and it current relations with Europe and the US.
A week before the war began, China raised a question that sent Western powers into a tizzy.

“Since the Cold War is long gone, NATO, a product of the Cold War, needs to adapt itself to the changing circumstances. If NATO keeps expanding eastward, will this be conducive to peace and stability in Europe, and will this contribute to long-term stability in Europe? This is a question that merits serious consideration by European friends.”

China is clearly indicating that Nato expansion is to blame for the Ukraine crisis.

Its Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying, minced no words: “When the US drove five waves of NATO expansion eastward all the way to Russia’s doorstep and deployed advanced offensive strategic weapons in breach of its assurances to Russia, did it ever think about the consequences of pushing a big country to the wall?”

And when Russia did invade Ukraine, Hua had an I-told-you-so expression on his face.

“The United States has been pushing up tensions and fomenting the danger of war for some time, and it has sent at least 1,000 tonnes of weapons and ammunition, worth at least US$1.5 billion, to Ukraine in the recent past… those who follow the US in fanning the flames and then accuse others of not helping to extinguish it are really not behaving responsibly. As the instigator, those who started the fire should consider how they can now take practical actions to put it out as soon as possible, instead of blaming others,” said the Chinese spokesperson.

On the other hand, China sees Russia committing no wrong and no transgression against all international rules.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart: “China has always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. At the same time, we also see that the Ukrainian issue has its complexity and special historical context. We understand the Russian side’s legitimate concerns on security issues. China advocates the complete abandonment of the Cold War mentality, and through dialogue and negotiations, the eventual formation of a European security regime that is balanced, effective and sustainable.”

In the same breath, China warned the US about sanctions: “[China’s] position is that sanctions are never fundamentally effective means to solve problems. We consistently oppose all illegal unilateral sanctions.”

Now it all depends on how the US and its allies respond to China. Overt provocation to corner China will prove unproductive and only end up provoking China further.

However, if they come to view China’s pro-Russia stance as being supportive of Russia’s unlawful aggression against Ukraine, China may have to be ready to face stricter sanctions. (POREG)